Dawn of January 1 was no different than dozens others since 1989 when the world witnessed revolts with disintegrating Soviet Union. The year 2011 was evidently predicted for newer signs of climatic disorders, economic tweaking within G-20 and status quo for occupied lands like Palestine, Iraq, Kashmir and Afghanistan.
Soon a tide was brewing in torpid political waters of Tunisia and Egypt. The world could hardly notice Mohammed Bouazizi's self-immolation in the central Tunisian town of Sidi Bouzid that Ben Ali was unceremoniously air borne.
Since 1973, Cairo’s Tahrir Square had only echoed with tributes for Hosni’s heroics in Sinai desert. Now pitched battles with thundering rhymes of ‘irhal’ ‘irhal’ shook the world capitals from deep slumber. Back in 1977, popular revolt in Pakistan had dethroned elected autocrat Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto (only to be hijacked by a military dictator) and brave Iranians ousted Shah of Iran in 1979, sending out tremors across Washington and London.
Until recently, political scientists regarded populist leadership and popular uprisings as things of past. They were half correct as the world is awe-struck with revolutions but without leaders to engineer them.
Except Al-Jazeera, the world media could hardly grasp developments inside the North African nations leave aside impacting them. Devoid of inspiring ideologies and closed-door intellectual discourses, the protests organized themselves in the open via Facebook, communicated through Twitter and archived videos on Youtube.
"They wanted to close Facebook down in the first quarter of 2009," The Guardian newspaper quoted Khaled Koubaa, president of the Internet Society in Tunisia, "but it was very difficult. So many people were using it that it appears that the regime backed off because they thought banning it might actually cause more problems [than leaving it]." Fall of Tunis was more or less regarded as an isolated incident until Israel’s neighborhood felt the heat.
Come end of January and Blackberry addicted US President Obama had no clues as to which way the wind was blowing. While back in the Cold War times, a US-funded non-profit organization, Radio Free Europe (RFE), proved a robust strategic communication tool against the former Soviet states like Poland, Hungary, and Czechoslovakia. The RFE broadcasts not only triggered Hungarian uprising but also protests in Poland and Czechoslovakia.
Much before Tunis’ Jasmine revolution, the social media had made its mark but earned little credit. US-backed Pakistani dictator Pervez Musharraf faced angry protests at home and worldwide, thanks to Facebook using expatriate and urban youth. He preferred exile over daily humiliation and quit power on August 18, 2008.
Though belatedly, enemies of the open society are learning the lethal power of Smartphone-holding youth. Yet not all admit the role of social media as a bridge amongst the oppressed. Malcolm Gladwell wrote Does Egypt Need Twitter? in the New Yorker, Laurie Penny penned Revolts Don't Have to be Tweeted in the New Statesman's and David Kravets published What's Fuelling Mideast protests?’, It's More Than Twitter in Wired magazine. Most critics believe that people and conditions cause uprisings, instead of technologies married to cyberspace.
Such skepticism is welcome for the sake of debate but it’s pre-mature given the domino effect engulfing Bahrain and Oman after Libya.
Interestingly, when financial feasibility of newspapers and TV channels is waning, citizen journalists or bloggers offer a quick alternate. While more news outlets are set to go out of business worldwide, new ones are set to take shape in the liberated states across North Africa and Middle East, not to assume centre stage but to compliment the role of social media.
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