Half a century ago in Vietnam, a Buddhist monk set himself on fire and triggered the fall of a regime. Since then, there have been numerous self-immolations with significant consequences but none as catastrophic as the one that happened in Tunisia.

Indeed, as we all know, Mohamed Buoazizi did not just set himself on fire. His death ignited the Arab Spring and spelled the doom of long held dictatorships and autocracies alike.

Back in 2005, at the US-Muslim World Forum in Doha, I spoke of the winds of change sweeping across the deserts of the Middle East. I said that given half a chance, the people would opt for freedom and democracy.

Well, the winds of change have become a raging storm, blowing the likes of Ben Ali, Mubarak, Gaddafi and Abdullah Salleh off their pedestals of power. There are others still hanging on for dear life but we know the outcome: it’s just a matter of time. You can’t fight the tide of history.

The repercussions of the Arab Spring are far reaching, going beyond the Middle East. Southeast Asia, for example, will be among the first to reap the fruits of this phenomenal change. Even so-called Old World democracies are affected. Wall Street, the icon of free market capitalism, has not been spared.

But first, the primary implications for the Middle East. Tunisia has successfully experienced her post-revolution general elections with significant results. The Egyptians too have cast their votes and all indications point to an Islamist-centric power sharing coalition.

There are concerns that reactionaries may want to turn back the clock on democracy but this fear is premature. What is certain is that the test of democracy will be manifold and challenges will emerge to push the endurance to its limits.

For Egypt now, the real test of the Arab Spring is whether it will be the voice of the people that will prevail or will the guns and mortar of the military hold sway. And even in this people’s voice, whether the voice of moderation will prevail over the voice of ideological rigour.

As for Southeast Asia, detractors, sceptics, and the powers that be in the region have dismissed the idea of an Arab Spring. They say that it won’t happen because unlike the Middle East, there has been no winter of discontent in Southeast Asia.

They say that the economy has been good, unemployment numbers are far lower than even the old democracies, and that revolution is not the Asian way.
They say that while the Middle East is marked by the rule of autocrats and family dynasties, Southeast Asia is led by democratically elected leaders. One is notorious for human rights abuses, negation of the rule of law and is a hotbed for terrorism. The other is a region of peace and security and espouses the protection of fundamental liberties, a free market and a policy of non-interference.

It is said that street protests run counter to Asian values. An Arab Spring will undermine societal stability and economic prosperity. The powers that be tell us that Asian values favour a strong paternalistic government, not liberal democracy. Indeed, they have made it clear that they won’t allow it to happen.

Now, we think it’s time for a reality check.

Surely, the likes of Ben Ali, Mubarak and Gaddafi never allowed it to happen and had vowed to come down hard on their people. But the people went ahead, and they prevailed.

In spite of this, Southeast Asian leaders still believe that they can cow the people into submission. It seems to be lost on them that the Arab Spring happened because those deposed did not allow it to happen. And that is precisely the point – the spring is not about what they want – it’s about what the people want.

Before we go from the Arab Spring to Wall Street, a quick survey of Southeast Asia will be telling indeed. With the exception of Indonesia, ASEAN is but a confederation of various pseudo democracies and several outright dictatorial regimes. Civil liberties are honoured more in the breach, and political dissent is considered treachery while minorities are treated as second class. Religious minorities in particular are viewed with suspicion and often dealt with in a patronizing way.

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