After 16 years of pursuit, suddenly Belgrade announced the arrest of elusive General Ratko Mladić, former commander of Bosnian-Serb Army 1992-1996. For 15 years, the Serb was on the run from the International Criminal Court over alleged massacre against Bosnian Muslims.
Although his arrest sent out a strong message to war criminals all over the world that they cannot escape claw of justice, many wonder what implication this arrest will have on relations between Bosnian Muslims and Serbs.
The answer lies hidden not only in dynamics of Serbian internal affairs but also in divided Serbian public opinion about the controversial general. The reaction and its interplay between the Serb and Bosnian Croats would also impact the mood within the Muslims.
Pro-Mladić Serbs dream of a ‘greater Serbia’, one that existed in the 19th century. Such ultra-nationalism got reinvigorated during the times of former President Slobodan Milošević, who died during the Hague trial.
The Serbian Orthodox Church played pivotal rule in separating Serbia from the Ottoman Empire. Thus, having become a part of ‘The Greater Serbia’ quest, the Church remains a key main player in the new Serbian Republic. On the other side, leftist and rightist groups are chalking out their policies differently after Milošević, Karadzić and Mladić contained one way or the other.
In the 2000 elections, the coalition of liberal Democratic Party and nationalist Serbian Democratic Party formed the government. A year later, Milošević was arrested and sent for trial in the International Court of War Crimes.
Later, the alliance broke up and the Serbian Democratic Party teamed up with the rightwing Serb nationalist parties on 2008 to form government. The previous government turned a blind eye to Mladić, considering him a National Hero. If there were any doubts, the Wikileaks cleared them all.
On the contrary, the Serb Democratic Party (SDP) won the 2008 elections under slogan of ‘Serbia is European’, in an attempt to break its isolation and embrace the EU. In 2010, the Serbian parliament denounced the 1995 Srebrenica Massacre where over 8,000 Muslims died in the siege followed by the savage killing orchestrated by Mladić and his troops.
Though the European bloc hailed the approach, it laid down some conditions for the Serbia’s membership. The EU demanded arrest and handing over of Mladić and his aides to the International Court of War Crimes. The SDP complied with by first arresting Radovan Karadzic in 2008 and later Mladić on May 26, 2011. Interestingly, the arrest coincided with the visit of EU Secretary Catherine Margaret Ashton in Belgrade who assured that Serbia was acting in the right direction towards the EU membership.
Though the Serbian government gambled well to get the EU membership by capturing Mladić in the fall of 2011, the ultra-nationalist opposition is taking full advantage of the controversy ahead of elections in spring of 2012.
Economic reforms, like privatization, started under Brussels’ pressure, increased poverty figures in Serbia, adversely impacting the government’s popularity as well as excitement to join the EU. Exploiting the situation, the opposition called for demonstrations in March and April.
Mladić’s arrest had similar implications amid opposition propaganda fueling the public sentiment against handing him over to the International Court of War Crimes. Public opinion polls suggest that 51% of Serbs oppose handing over of Mladić to The Hague.
The split in the Serbian society about Mladić’s role would last till the next elections. The influential church in Serbia may also influence the public opinion. Media reports highlight that the clergy not only refrained from denouncing his war crimes against Muslims but also provided him sanctuary while on the run.
Unless the church denounces of the war crimes, any meaningful reconciliation between the Bosnians Muslims and the Christian Serbs would not be possible. Moreover, given that Mladić is handed over to The Hague, his status as ‘national hero’ for the Serbs would remain unchallenged. Even if he is hanged, many would call him a martyr. This divide over Mladić is not the only thing that characterize Serbia but also two entities - Bosnian-Croats Federation and the Republic of Serbia – the achievement of Milošević and Karadzić.
Over the last few years, gulf between the two entities has grown especially when the Bosnian-Serbs threaten to separate away from Bosnian Federation and join the Republic of Serbia, practically realizing the Greater Serbia dream.
The arrest of Mladić has deepened the differences not only amongst the public but also with the government. Understandably, the presidential ruling council in the Bosnian-Croats Federation welcomed the arrest as it would help reduce the families’ pain.
The important thing here is that this broad division is not only at street level but also at the official level. While the statements varied of the three-member (Bosnian, Serb and Croat) Presidential Council of Bosnia, the Serb republic’s desired to fund the defense team for Mladić in The Hague, which clearly highlights extent of division between the parties.
Finally, the statement of the Serbian government’s Bosnian Minister Rasim Ljajic that the arrest of Mladić and handing him over will pave the way for the national reconciliation between the Serbs and the Bosnians is seen as a wish. Assortment of intellectuals, politicians and other segments in Serbia protested against the arrest of Mladić to the International Court of War Crimes.
Therefore, the Serbian government is depending on its success in obtaining the nomination of Serbia to join the EU in the autumn of 2011 and get more help from Europe to absorb pockets of poverty in Serbia to raise their popularity before the elections in the spring of 2012 which Mladić will be its symbols and slogans.
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